Nathan Lyon was one of a handful of players to attend Australia's optional training session at Newlands on Saturday, and at the end of the session he walked to the centre of the arena and had a brief conversation with the groundsman while standing next to the Test strip.
Australia's selectors have decisions to make regarding both ends of the XI for the deciding Test against South Africa, which starts on October 27. Potential batting changes are dominating the headlines, but they will also need to wrestle with whether to recall Lyon, who sat out of the second Test. A dry surface and good forecast could work in his favour, but recent numbers for spin at Newlands paint the opposite picture.
For the third time in the last eight Tests Lyon was available but was left out in Gqeberha, in favour of an all-pace attack. Scott Boland was recalled to the line-up instead. In all, it meant Australia have gone without a frontline spinner in five of the last 10 Tests. Although there were times at St George's Park when Pat Cummins would probably have liked a frontline spinner - in part due to Josh Hazlewood's illness which occurred after the game started - the data would suggest there's at least a chance it becomes six from 11.
Since 2020, spinners have averaged 54.50 in Tests at Newlands, while pace takes wickets at 24.06. Of all Test venues in that period, it has the third highest average of spin after Centurion and North Sound (minimum four Tests). Last week, Lyon didn't play at a venue that had the lowest average for spinners of any non-Asia ground in the last 10 years.
Recommended Read
Lyon's own record at Newlands does not make a compelling case either: in three Tests, he has taken five wickets at 43.80 and all of those came in 2018, including his overshadowed 300th Test wicket, on the day the ball-tampering scandal broke. That followed wicketless outings in 2011 (the 47 all out game when he bowled just three overs) and 2014 when South Africa blocked him for 17 maidens out of 22 overs in the second innings as they fell narrowly short of saving the game.
As ever in this series, the caveat of the time of the year needs to be thrown in, although there is a hint of summer in the air. It seems unlikely that cricket played earlier in the season, as in this series, would promote more spin off the surface. However, in the two CSA 4-Day Series matches already played at Newlands this season, spinners average 26.05. It may also be worth noting that the most recent Test at the ground, against Pakistan in early 2025, saw totals of 615 and 478, although spinners on both sides toiled for wickets.
After the third day at St George's Park, Mitchell Starc quipped that Lyon wasn't doing any "sideline interviews" this time, in reference to his remark about being "filthy" when he was left out at the Gabba against England last season. Cummins acknowledged the disappointment was still there for Lyon, but said the decision was made for compelling reasons.
"Nath (Lyon) was awesome this week," Cummins said after the second Test. "You saw him, [he] did about 20,000 steps each day, running drinks and gloves. I don't think it's any secret that he's not too happy when he's not playing, but I think he understands. So he was great, he's a big boy. He accepts it, no worries, moves on and turns into the great team man that he is this week.
"I think the other layer to it is that you saw the first two days [there were] big clouds, it felt like spin wasn't going to play much part in the first half of the game and it didn't really play much part in the second and you're talking about Scotty Boland, who he's come up against. So I think those factors all matter and Nathan's been fantastic."
Boland, meanwhile, had an excellent Test Gqeberha, as he nearly always does, with 5 for 81, then 40 off 166 balls in the follow-on - the second-highest score for Australia in the Test. It led Cummins to say: "I couldn't love that bloke any more."
But even after the second day, when he had four wickets in the bag and South Africa were 97 for 5 before the wheels came off for Australia, Boland conceded playing every Test wasn't "100% realistic." He could play in place of another quick but unless anyone is sore after two back-to-back Tests, it is tough to leave out any of the big three - Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins. It's only ever happened once when they've all been available, at Edgbaston in 2023 with Starc to the one to miss out.
The other scenario that could work against Lyon is that, should the selectors decide to drop allrounder Beau Webster, who is one of the batters under pressure, they would lose a seam-bowling option. Cameron Green is expected to be available for the third Test, but Andrew McDonald has previously said he won't bowl on this tour. Therefore, to bring Lyon back, Australia would need to weigh up the risk of just three pace-bowling options for the third Test.
"Every game you're looking at [the attack]," Cummins said. "I said it before the match, you've going to try and pick five or six bowlers into four slots or who are all matchwinners, who have been fantastic. So absolutely, we'll get [to Newlands], we'll talk about conditions, how people are tracking, how we think the game's going to pan out and, like every Test, [Lyon's] name will be front and centre."