Pakistan and Sri Lanka begin their search for a way forward in Tests

This Test series may not ultimately end up being relevant to the machinations of the pointy end of the World Test Championship (WTC), but could be an important clue about Pakistan and Sri Lanka's direction of Test travel. Neither side has, to the extent they have played Test cricket, had much to celebrate of late, but these games promise to be an absorbing strategic battle at the beginning of Pakistan's Test season.

For Pakistan, the only way, truly, is up; they just don't know how to get there. They are rooted to the bottom of the table more than halfway into this WTC cycle with a points percentage of just over 4%. They have won two games in nine, most recently coming off a humbling tour of England, who might have endured struggles on their own, but were good enough to thrash Pakistan 3-0.

They removed captain Shan Masood at the start of the summer; now they have removed him from the squad altogether. They appointed Sarfaraz Ahmed and Umar Gul as head coach and bowling coach earlier this year; both were gone in months, now replaced by Mike Hesson, who becomes all format coach, and Shaun Tait. There are few signs yet, though, that any of this has injected fresh impetus into a waning Pakistan Test side. For the second Test in a row, Pakistan have made last-minute changes, announcing less than 48 hours before the game the removal of two men from the squad, and the arrival of four more.

There is some confusion about the nature of the pitches for this series, and that largely has to do with their opponents, Sri Lanka. Wary of the visitors' perceived ability on turning tracks, Pakistan's squad selection indicates they will pivot hard in the other direction. There is not a single specialist spinner in Pakistan's squad; they never selected Sajid Khan and Noman Ali, and let go of Ali Usman on Saturday. Whether, in the early summer, this translates to flat, batting tracks or grassy, seam-friendly strips, this series does promise to be nothing like any home Test series for at least two years.

The irony here is it isn't at all clear spin is Sri Lanka's most efficient route to success. They bring with them left-arm orthodox spinner Prabath Jayasuriya, who once bowled them to victory over Pakistan four years earlier. But if these wickets do support pace bowling, they have a balanced pace attack, with five diverse seam bowlers to choose from. Wins of late have been hard to come by, with four winless Tests this year, but a battling draw against India demonstrated the grit of their batting line-up, in contrast to Pakistan's own fragilities in that department.

The build-up to this series has been about which side can better conceal its weaknesses.. Come tomorrow, there will be no hiding place.

Form guide

Pakistan: LLLWL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Sri Lanka: DLDLW

A honeymoon start isn't uncommon for a Pakistan fast bowler, but the reality check that follows has tripped many fast bowlers up of late. Razaullah, the express quick bowler who lit up Edgbaston with his high pace, big hitting, and intoxicating charisma, must now back it up in Rawalpindi. The timing has been kind to him, with Pakistan potentially looking to offer the fast bowlers something with the wickets they produce. But Razaullah was fast-tracked in extraordinary circumstances into Pakistan's Test side, with no discernible long-term plan to ease him into its rigours. The home season coming up will go a long way to determining whether Birmingham was a flash in the pan or the accidental emergence of a true talent.

As far as starts to Test careers go, they don't come much dreamier than 25-year-old Sonal Dinusha's Only one of his last six Test innings have produced a score under 84, with three centuries in his last four knocks. He scored two hundreds against India in his most recent Test, a heroic unbeaten 133 in the second innings keeping India at bay. In his five-Test career so far, he has never batted higher than six, but if he follows up his big home summer with his first significant contributions away, it is hard to imagine him not rising very quickly.

Arafat Minhas is the only credible spin option Pakistan's squad is left with. The surfeit of allrounders in the squad suggests they wish to bat deep, while also retaining at least five bowling options. That could bring Aamer Jamal, belatedly called up to the squad, into the side, with three out-and-out seamers to follow.

Pakistan (probable): 1 Azan Awais, 2 Sameer Minhas, 3 Tayyab Arif, 4 Babar Azam (capt), 5 Saud Shakeel, 6 Salman Agha, 7 Ghazi Ghori/Saad Baig (wk), 8 Arafat Minhas/Aamer Jamal, 9 Razaullah, 10 Mohammad Abbas, 11 Saqib Khan/Ali Shabbir.

This will be the first time Kusal Mendis takes charge of a Test side, but for the most part, there is likely to be continuity from the sides that played against India and West Indies earlier this year. Despite Dhananjaya's reduced recent workload with the ball, they have the security of an extra spinner in their top seven, allowing them to operate with a three-man pace attack.

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Pasindu Sooriyabandara, 2 Lahiru Udara (wk), 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Kamindu Mendis, 5 Dhananjaya de Silva, 6 Sonal Dinusha, 7 Kusal Mendis (capt), 8 Prabath Jayasuriya, 9 Keshara Nuwantha, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Dilshan Madushanka

What appears clear is Pakistan will try their best to ensure it is not a spinning surface. That could translate to a flat strip, especially over the first three days, though recent history suggests it is by no means certain to break up sufficiently towards the end of the Test. Running up a big score in the first innings appears to be the safest strategy.

There is rain expected on Thursday, but dry weather for the remainder of the Test.