New Zealand are at home, with the benefit of local knowledge. Australia are out of their comfort zone, and with a weakened bowling attack.
There is also the considerable sub plot of Brendon McCullum's final series and his 100th Test. It is even better than that - in Wellington, he is set to become the first player to play 100 Tests in a row.
When the first Test begins in Wellington on Friday, all of New Zealand will be baying for the most fitting possible farewell for an inspirational cricketer - a first series victory over Australia since 1986.
Bet365.com are not convinced though. They make 8/5 for a victory with Australia 5/4.
The Basin Reserve pitch was verdant green two days out from the match, and even if its colour may not denote as much seam movement as it appears, the ball will be kept in good condition by the surface and should swing.
That might suit New Zealand, who lost their last home series against Australia 2-0 in 2010.



